Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 3.756532e-02 0.043823 0.050292 0.057443 0.065091 0.072995 0.081751
2025-11-09 2.740128e-02 0.036336 0.046136 0.057512 0.070203 0.083792 0.099320
2025-11-16 1.946662e-02 0.029510 0.041187 0.055351 0.071710 0.089718 0.110769
2025-11-23 1.388779e-02 0.024312 0.037170 0.053410 0.072738 0.094499 0.120398
2025-11-30 1.090623e-02 0.021767 0.035862 0.054241 0.076610 0.102205 0.133048
2025-12-07 8.776274e-03 0.019952 0.035162 0.055557 0.080848 0.110166 0.145843
2025-12-14 7.383136e-03 0.018926 0.035303 0.057771 0.086048 0.119156 0.159745
2025-12-21 5.815458e-03 0.017316 0.034454 0.058570 0.089400 0.125879 0.170940
2025-12-28 5.535735e-03 0.017778 0.036457 0.063048 0.097283 0.137974 0.188406
2026-01-04 3.787601e-03 0.015261 0.033973 0.061444 0.097454 0.140755 0.194862
2026-01-11 2.940344e-03 0.014213 0.033522 0.062470 0.100869 0.147388 0.205819
2026-01-18 2.142687e-03 0.013012 0.032709 0.062913 0.103479 0.152996 0.215522
2026-01-25 1.522181e-03 0.012048 0.032281 0.064000 0.107099 0.160082 0.227308
2026-02-01 8.953355e-04 0.010697 0.031098 0.063963 0.109249 0.165386 0.237012
2026-02-08 2.988832e-04 0.008655 0.028463 0.061656 0.108286 0.166740 0.241880
2026-02-15 3.289295e-05 0.006941 0.026119 0.059597 0.107528 0.168258 0.246872
2026-02-22 6.818243e-09 0.006322 0.025758 0.060476 0.110693 0.174680 0.257813
2026-03-01 NaN 0.005909 0.025751 0.061869 0.114539 0.181953 0.269787
2026-03-08 NaN 0.005798 0.026355 0.064210 0.119684 0.190875 0.283787
2026-03-15 NaN 0.005289 0.026033 0.065053 0.122743 0.197129 0.294503
2026-03-22 NaN 0.005850 0.028129 0.069780 0.131202 0.210294 0.313739
2026-03-29 NaN 0.004722 0.026269 0.068088 0.130699 0.211968 0.318797
2026-04-05 NaN 0.004366 0.026139 0.069170 0.134050 0.218572 0.329932